Tristan Predicts The Oscars - Part 1, The Nominations

It's Oscar Eve around the Library of Babel because as you may be vaguely aware, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences gets to decree tomorrow what the undisputed best films of 2010 were, and then history shall be written and we all will rejoice. This is clearly a more important event than the awards ceremony itself, because it will not feature lame dance numbers, Twilight actors jealously handing off awards they will never possess, and long-winded faux-inspirational speeches (oh wait, never mind).

It's also the one day of the year I look forward to waking up early.

I'll save my critiquing of the year in general until my 2010 awards go live in another month, and I'll even try to restrain my contempt for a few of the possible contenders, although honestly, it's a perfectly acceptable bunch, far better than the motley crew we got saddled with last year. I will however attempt to explain myself where necessary, because as always, this is a juggling act of educated guesses, instinct and wishful thinking.

Also, not even going to attempt the shorts categories, but if I could, I would totally nominate David Lynch's Dior commercial with Marion Cotillard.

All nominees lists alphabetically, not in order of likelihood.

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Ghost Writer
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Just so we get this out in the open, I think having 10 nominees is stupid. It's one of those give-all-the-kids-a-gold-star moves that is simultaneously motivated by ratings greed and shameful kowtowing to a bunch of IMDBtards. The wisdom this season has been that the final 10 would come out of a preordained group of 11, two of which you may notice I have left off (that would be 127 Hours and The Town, films I liked more than a handful I included). The Boyle film I struck from the record for flagging support outside of James Franco, while Ben Affleck's opus I believe will suffer from being relegated to ballot-filler.

That doesn't mean I'm certain of the rest. Black Swan, The Social Network, The King's Speech, and The Fighter seem certain, and the Coens will get their film in on box office and pedigree, but the others all come with reservations, particularly The Ghost Writer which is my left-field pick in this category. The reasoning is that most will have seen it since it came out way back in March, and Roman Polanski's name may have negative connotations in middle America, but Hollywood still loves the guy, and this is his best film since at least Tess. I suspect it will play especially well with the older crowd, who otherwise have very little on their plate this year except for The King's Speech. Methinks it gets both a handful of high ballot placements and a lot of filler votes, which I think will be enough for it to beat 127 Hours and The Town to the cutoff.

And I'm clearly still predicting it to get in, but I think we've been grossly over-estimating Inception. Moving on...

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David O. Russell - The Fighter

Continuing on that last thought, here's where I'm going to eat my words. Where's Chris Nolan? Buried under Aronofsky and Fincher, I say, because I think a lot of the same voting contingent will be going for those three films, in which case Inception is going to lose out. Now, these are voted on by the director's branch, which has a respectable track record of welcoming new nominees into the fold, but Aronofsky and Hooper are already making that leap for sure this year. The weak link though is Russell and his unfavorable reputation, which I could easily see give way to a Nolan nomination.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours

Bardem is the one with a big question mark hanging over his head, but the only other viable options would seem to be Robert Duvall in the forgotten Get Low and Ryan Gosling in wild-card Blue Valentine, a film which I have no idea whether the Academy is seeing or not.

Best Actress
Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Halie Steinfeld - True Grit
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Portman is lockety-locked. Benning is in business. Lawrence seems likely. Steinfeld, despite being placed elsewhere, is clearly the lead of her film and I think she works her way in here. Unfortunately for Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole died a cold, hard death and I don't think she's making the list. Who does that leave? Michelle Williams is my best guess.

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Vincent Cassel - Black Swan
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

This has forced me to disregard Jeremy Renner and John Hawkes (and it pains me to leave Hawkes out since it was such a great supporting role) because I think the former's interest has waned as enthusiasm for The Town has likewise, while the later remains largely unknown to movie folk. We know that Bale and Rush are in, and I picked Garfield and (more surprisingly) Cassel because I think the ardent fans of their respective films will throw support there wherever they can. So even though I should be most worried about the Cassel nomination, I think it's Ruffalo who's on shakier ground. Still, I say, he's in.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Barbara Hershey - Black Swan
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

I love how much room for error there is in this category. You've got two ladies from The Fighter vying for spots and the one who just won the Globe got left out of the BAFTA noms! Then there's the Black Swanettes, Barbara Hershey and Mila Kunis, both deserving, but I don't think the Academy is ready to embrace one of the stars of That 70s Show, awesome as she was. Bonham Carter has turned up just about everywhere so I wouldn't bet against her, but the role also lacks the dynamism usually associated with awards, so who knows. There's Lesley Manville, who was certifiably amazing in Another Year, but if Sally Hawkins couldn't get in for the much more beloved Happy-Go-Lucky, then I just can't see this happening. Who else? Julianne Moore perhaps if she's dumped here (when she's definitely lead) for The Kids Are All Right or Olivia Williams if The Ghost Writer proves more successful than we think. My instinct though is Jacki Weaver, singled out for her imposing matriarch in Animal Kingdom, a film that was on top of sending screeners to the academy, which certainly will help.

Original Screenplay
Animal Kingdom
Another Year
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Adapted Screenplay
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Animal Kingdom I think will be this year's In Bruges or In The Loop (both which I predicted to get in when most others didn't). Another Year will be another Leigh film recognized by the writers even when it gets ignored everywhere else. Inception is just not a writer's movie.

But Original has The Fighter and Blue Valentine as spoilers. In Adapted, I'm more confident in those 5, unless 127 Hours creeps in, but that one just feels like more of a director/actors' movie than a writer's one.

Animated Feature
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Foreign Language
Biutiful
Confessions
In a Better World
Life, Above All
Tambien la Lluvia

Documentary
Gasland
Inside Job
The Lottery
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman

Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
I Am Love
Inception
The King's Speech

Cinematography
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit

Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Costumes
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest

Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"I See The Light" - Tangled
"Shine" - Waiting For Superman

Original Score
The Ghost Writer
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3

Sound Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
Toy Story 3

Sound Mixing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
Alice in Wonderland

Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception

Tristan's Annual Unsuccessful New Year's Res...

Now broadcasting to you from Chicago.

With that comes the promise of more frequent updates, as I suddenly find the doors of a more vibrant film scene wide open. But before any of that nonsense, it's list time, and lest we forget, lists are commonly found in one of two shades. Sure, everyone likes the masturbatory Type A list, in which you decree to the world exactly what they ought to be appreciating - opinions, after all, are what keeps this old internet of our spinning on its axis - but one man's Type A list is another man's B, the ever-dreaded, perpetually looming To-Do list. To-Watch-These-Movies in my case.

It's my annual tradition, the drafting of the list as sacred and sure as my inability to get to the bottom of it (not that I proceed in any sort of order). It's also not technically one man's Type A list, but many (with great thanks this year to Culturish's dws1982, who's brilliant top 200 can be found here). I once pulled from the canon, but I've expanded lately, and this year the lineup mostly plumbs the depths of the auteurs even further. As always, I suspect availability will stop me in my tracks more than once, but it's a bunch I'm personally quite excited about (especially for the chance to look further a Ozu, several years since we last met) and I'll report back during the year as I make a bit of a dent.

Here it is, 52 Films of 2011
1. Straight Story (David Lynch)
2. Awaara (Raj Kapoor)
3. Zazie dans le Metro (Louis Malle)
4. My Dinner With Andre (Louis Malle)
5. Brand Upon the Brain (Guy Maddin)
6. Archangel (Guy Maddin)
7. Barsaat (Raj Kapoor)
8. No Fear, No Die (Claire Denis)
9. I Am Curious Blue & Yellow (Vilgot Sjolman)
10. Moonfleet (Fritz Lang)
11. Doctor Mabuse series (Fritz Lang)
12. Mr. Arkadin (Orson Welles)
13. The Trial (Orson Welles)
14. Dog Star Man (Stan Brakage)
15. A City of Sadness (Hou Hsiao Hsien)
16. Goodbye South, Goodbye (Hou Hsiao Hsien)
17. The Wind (Victor Sjostrom)
18. J’Taime, J’Taime (Alain Resnais)
19. Memories of Murder (Bong Joon Ho)
20. I Was Born, But… (Yasujiro Ozu)
21. An Autumn Afternoon (Yasujiro Ozu)
22. Play Misty For Me (Clint Eastwood)
23. White Hunter, Black Heart (Clint Eastwood)
24. Where Is My Friends Home? (Abbas Kiarostami)
25. Ten (Abbas Kiarostami)
26. The Death of Mr. Laszarescu (Cristi Puilu)
27. Pyassa (Guru Dutt)
28. Three Lives & Only One Death (Raul Ruiz)
29. The Killing (Stanley Kubrick)
30. Hidden Fortress (Akira Kurosawa)
31. Red Beard (Akira Kurosawa)
32. The Spider’s Stratagem (Bernardo Bertolucci)
33. Before the Revolution (Bernardo Bertolucci)
34. The Dreamers (Bernardo Bertolucci)
35. Tenenbre (Dario Argento)
36. Cronos (Guillermo del Toro)
37. Blood For Dracula (Paul Morrissey)
38. Hard Eight (Paul Thomas Anderson)
39. The Seventh Continent (Michael Haneke)
40. The Kingdom (Lars von Trier)
41. The Virgin Suicides (Sofia Coppola)
42. Hedwig & the Angry Itch (John Cameron Mitchell)
43. Wonderland (Michael Winterbottom)
44. Crash (David Cronenberg)
45. Adoration (Atom Egoyan)
46. The Fall of the Roman Empire (Anthony Mann)
47. The Lusty Men (Nicholas Ray)
48. Violent Summer (Valerio Zurlini)
49. Mountains of the Moon (Bob Rafelson)
50. Europa ’51 (Roberto Rossellini)
51. Stars in My Crown (Jacques Tournier)
52. Le Doulos (Jean-Pierre Melville)