Academy Awards Predictions

This is really coming in under the wire, but my week has been surprisingly busy since last Tuesday and time budgeting cuts had to be made. As a result, my yearly awards will not be debuting alongside my predictions, as the graphics (and even some viewing) are still in progress. But I wouldn't miss these predictions for the world, so with only a few hours to go, which I need to spend tabulating ballots for a mock-awards ceremony and concocting a Winter's Bone inspired dish, I've found time to consult my magic 8 ball on the plausible outcomes of tonight.

Two important points:
1. I've seen the majority of the nominees, but not nearly all. However, I've seen everything in the big 8 categories save Javier Bardem's performance in Biutiful and all the animated films, but I've only seen two of the docs (Restrepo and Exit Through the Gift Shop) and one foreign nominee (Dogtooth, and there's a greater chance of the show ending on time than this going anywhere). Some notable films I'm missing include Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Inside Job, Incendies and In a Better World.

2. To avoid the allure of hopedicting (ie. the inclination to elevate the chances of personal favorites), I'm also including my thoughts on what deserves to win, unlikely as that may be.

And the winners are...

Best Picture
The King's Speech

It was The Social Network's to lose for the longest time until The King's Speech proved that the academy members don't give a hoot what the critics are saying. It has dominated the late season awards, the ones which prove a pretty accurate litmus test for the big award on Oscar night just because of overlapping voters.

Should win: Black Swan

Best Director
David Fincher, The Social Network

Here's an actual race, though I bet in retrospect we won't think of it as such. Yes, Hooper's film is going to win the big prize, but he's a relatively unknown director and Fincher has found mainstream acceptance over the past few years. I think we're looking at our first Picture/Director split since Crash/Ang Lee and it's certainly one I can live with.

Still, my personal pick would be: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Best Actor
Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Because it just makes since. Eisenberg is too young and his film couldn't pull any other acting love. Bridges just won last year. Franco is definitely in right now, but I don't think many will be checking off the name of the host on their ballots. Bardem has some ardent support, but I just don't think that can stop the guy with the stutter. Plus, Firth still has some carry over love from A Single Man. He takes it.

Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

So no shit, Portman is poised to win and I don't buy Bening's odds for a minute. But instead let's take a moment to reflect on this best actress lineup, easily the strongest the Academy has pulled together since 1996 (McDormand/Watson/Scott-Thomas/Blethyn/Keaton). Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams are particularly great choices, and even if Bening is my least favorite, she's a pretty darn good fifth favorite.

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter

The supporting categories are where I need my hopedicting guard on, because I'm still refusing to believe that the trashiness of The Fighter can translate into any golden statues. Geoffrey Rush is definitely in the game, and if The King's Speech is really on fire, he may very well prevent this imminent disaster, but I won't bet on it. Starting tomorrow you'll have to call him Oscar winner, Christian Bale.

Should win: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Best Supporting Actress
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

The toughest category in the big 8, and the one where I'm going to buck the general consensus. Melissa Leo has the edge here, but she's done a lot to sabotage her own campaign lately, not to mention she couldn't even get in at the BAFTAs, which surely hurts more than anything. Suince my favorite (Jacki Weaver) has little to no chance, it's down to the category fraudulent Steinfeld and the respected Brit in the BP favorite. I'm going with Helena.

Should win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network

There really was never any question of this whatsoever.

Should win: 127 Hours

Original Screenplay
The King's Speech

Damn shame that the screenplay categories are so boring this year.

Should win: Another Year

Animated Film
Toy Story 3

Should win: The Illusionist

Foreign Language Film
Incendies

Should win: Haven't seen the others, but Jesus Christ not Dogtooth

Documentary (Feature)
Inside Job

Should win: I've only seen Exit Through the Gift Shop and Restropo, but I overwhelmingly prefer the later.

Art Direction
The King's Speech

Should win: Uh, none preferably. Actually, I'll say True Grit.

Cinematography
True Grit

Should win: Black Swan

Costume Design
I Am Love

Honestly, weird shit happens in this category all the time. I think this is between I Am Love and The Tempest.

Should win: Honestly, I didn't like I Am Love at all, but I could support a win in costumes.

Makeup
Barney's Version

Should win: I've not seen any of these, so, yeah.

Original Score
The King's Speech

Should win: 127 Hours

Original Song
"We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3

Should win: "If I Rise" or "I See the Light" are both solid choices

Editing
The Social Network

Should win: Black Swan

Sound Editing
Inception

Should win: Inception

Sound Mixing
Inception

Should win: why not, The King's Speech

Visual Effects
Inception

Should win: Inception

Animated Short
The Gruffalo

Should win: I've seen 3 of the 5 and The Gruffalo was my favorite as well, but I could certainly imagine liking one of the others better.

Documentary Short
Killing in the Name

Live Action Short
God of Love


That's all, folks. I'll assess my accuracy either late tonight or tomorrow, and hopefully get my own awards up next weekend.