Friday, March 5, 2010

Final Oscar Predictions

My yearly Oscar predictions, informed by my painstaking efforts to take in as many of the nominees as possible. That effort was mostly successful, but notably I've not seen Precious, The Blind Side, The Young Victoria, Il Divo, The Princess and the Frog and most of the foreign language nominees.

Best Picture
The Winner Is: Inglourious Basterds
Should Be: Inglourious Basterds
Wish Was Nominated: The Brothers Bloom

Why? Well, call it a hunch, though not an entirely unfounded one. Avatar may be more beloved, but it also has more haters, who are sure to stick it at the very bottom of their ballots. The Hurt Locker has the upper hand for sure, but the Basterds won the SAG ensemble award and if anything can upset in the Best Picture race, this is it.

Best Director
The Winner Is: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Be: Quentin Tarantino
Wish Was Nominated: Michael Haneke

Why? Because she deserves it, not just because she's a woman, but because she did an exceptional job directing what's proved to be the first notable film on the Iraq War. Of course, Tarantino was even better - and for that matter, Bigelow's been better too, just watch Strange Days and Near Dark - but I'd be shocked if anyone walked away with the award.

Best Actor
The Winner Is: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Should Be: Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Wish Was Nominated: Joaquin Phoenix - Two Lovers

Why? Because The Dude needs to get his due. It's about time.

Best Actress
The Winner Is: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Should Be: Carey Mulligan - An Education
Wish Was Nominated: Kim Hye-ja - Mother

Why? I don't know. Because fate is cruel. Or because there is no God. Something like that.

Best Supporting Actor
The Winner Is: Christophe Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Should Be: Christophe Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Wish Was Nominated: Peter Capaldi - In the Loop

Why? It's one of the great supporting turns of the decade. He'll be the best winner in the category since at least Chris Cooper, maybe even since Kevin Kline.

Best Supporting Actress
The Winner Is: Monique - Precious
Should Be: Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Wish Was Nominated: Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds

Why? Because she is an unstoppable force of nature. Too bad since in a less locked-away year, Farmiga could have had a real chance.

Best Original Screenplay
The Winner Is: Inglourious Basterds
Should Be: Inglourious Basterds
Wish Was Nominated: The Brothers Bloom

Regardless of what happens in Best Picture, this award is pretty solidly in Quentin's hands. Either it'll go hand in hand with a swell of support for the movie, or it'll be his consolation prize.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Winner Is: Up in the Air
Should Be: In the Loop
Wish Was Nominated: The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Why? Worthy winner, and probably the only award Up in the Air is going to see. Strong category too, which I rarely say about Adapted. Just like with Original and QT, this is a chance to give a consolation prize to Reitman.

Best Animated Film
The Winner Is: Up
Should Be: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Wish Was Nominated: Ponyo

Why? Why is Ponyo not here? Why is Up so beloved? So many questions. Little confusion as to what's going to happen here.

Best Foreign Language Film
The Winner Is: The White Ribbon
Should Be: The White Ribbon
Wish Was Nominated: Mother

Why? Wow, this one is so not already decided. All the films are reportedly excellent, and The White Ribbon is the only one I've had a chance to see. I have no idea how these will collectively play to voters, and even still, last year Foreign Film gave us one of the bigger upsets in modern Oscar history with Departures winning. Anything could happen here, but I suspect it's a showdown between The White Ribbon and A Prophet, just like it was at Cannes (where the Haneke film won, but that may have been Isabelle Huppert's doing).

Best Documentary
The Winner Is: The Cove
Should Be: Anything but The Cove
Wish Was Nominated: La Danse: The Paris Opera Ballet

Why? People feel so bad for exploited animals that they're willing to side with insane people to make them feel like they're taking a stand on the issue.

Best Documentary Short
The Winner Is: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Why? Didn't you hear? Earthquakes are in right now.

Best Live Action Short
The Winner Is: Miracle Fish

Why? Your guess is as good as mine. Actually it's not. I'm pretty good at arbitrarily guessing these short categories.

Best Animated Short
The Winner Is: The Lady and the Reaper
Should Be: The Lady and the Reaper

Why? I'm holding out that the genuine best of the bunch (and it's a good bunch) will prevail.

Best Original Score
The Winner Is: Up
Should Be: Up
Wish Was Nominated: The Last Station

Why? Lord knows I have my problems with Up, but that score is sublime.

Best Original Song
The Winner Is: The Weary Kind - Crazy Heart
Should Be: The Weary Kind - Crazy Heart
Wish Was Nominated: I've Got You Wrapped Around My Little Finger - An Education

Why? I never seriously contemplated any of the competition.

Best Sound Editing
The Winner Is: Avatar
Should Be: Avatar

Why? Far be it for me to doubt the potency of Avatar in these tech categories.

Best Sound Mixing
The Winner Is: Avatar
Should Be: Avatar

Why? Would voters really vote differently here than on the above. The answer is no.

Best Art Direction
The Winner Is: The Imaginerium of Doctor Parnassus
Should Be: The Imaginerium of Doctor Parnassus
Wish Was Nominated: The Brothers Bloom

Why? Well, let me clear this up. Avatar will win here. But Parnassus deserves to so much that I'm predicting it just because I want to believe in a just world.

Best Cinematography
The Winner Is: Inglourious Basterds
Should Be: The White Ribbon
Wish Was Nominated: Antichrist

Why? One of the toughest categories aside from Foreign Film to predict. I can't imagine The Hurt Locker and its shaky camera or the Harry Potter film to take it, but any of the other three seems plausible. I'm sticking with Inglourious Basterds.

Best Makeup
The Winner Is: The Young Victoria
Should Be: I just don't care
Wish Was Nominated: how about Drag Me to Hell

Why? I picked the pretty one. But really, who knows.

Best Costume Design
The Winner Is: Nine
Should Be: The Imaginerium of Doctor Parnassus
Wish Was Nominated: The Brothers Bloom

Why? I'm banking on the one voters are most likely to have seen.

Best Visual Effects
The Winner Is: Avatar
Should Be: Avatar
Wish Was Nominated: The Imaginerium of Doctor Parnassus

Why? Really? Must you ask.

Best Editing
The Winner Is: The Hurt Locker
Should Be: The Hurt Locker
Wish Was Nominated: The Brothers Bloom

Why? It's a war film about a bomb disposal squad. Tight editing done well - and it's done exceptionally well - is instrumental.

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